March ECB meeting on interest rates, the euro out of the "deep V", a large number of short ringing off the hook; in April meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi finally did not let the market down, the euro out of the "inverted V" reversal Quotes .
Beijing at 19:45 on April 21, the European Central Bank interest rate decision announcement, scheduled on hold: refinancing rate unchanged 0%; -0.4% overnight deposit rate unchanged; overnight lending rate 0.25 percent, the monthly QE scale of 80 billion euro unchanged. The first to open the euro rally.
On the same day, 20:30 Mario Draghi held a news conference, which also completely reversed the euro gains, so the bears have got his wish.
Overseas Minsheng Securities head of research for First Financial Correspondent Zhang Yu said that this euro lower, mainly due to the Drudge overthrown "There is no need for further interest rate cuts," the statement represented the last meeting, after which it is released in June official details of the purchase of corporate bonds. In addition, he denied the possibility of "helicopter money" (helicopter money) market hot.
As at Beijing at 22:00 on the April 21 press correspondents, the euro against the US dollar reported 1.292, compared with 1.388 huge high after the start of the conference fell.
Draghi success "verbal pressure" euro
Last month, Draghi's words, "the future may not reduce interest rates further," the euro out of the "deep V" market for monetary policy, the market really appreciate the "verbal pressure" is more powerful than easing live ammunition .
Although the monthly interest rate decision on hold, but Draghi said: "The next time interest rates will remain at current or lower levels as long as necessary, the ECB ready to take advantage of the right to use all the tools to take action to prepare." compared with last month, which everyone fears for the future sustained easing less than expected, the euro rose and then fell, showing the "inverted V".
It is noteworthy that, after the market started hot ECB the possibility of "helicopter money" in. In this regard, Drudge himself is rather surprised at the press conference, said the market seems to misread its real intention, "the ECB has never considered the concept of 'helicopter money' difficulties in the operation and the law."
The reason why the concept of being hot, Zhang Yu analysis, said:. "At present the ECB balance sheet size has reached 28.5% share of GDP, has been higher than 26% of the peak for the United States and therefore international investors have concerns about European policy tools exhausted . "
In general, QE the central bank printing money to buy long-term government bonds in an attempt to support government spending, lowering the long end of the interest rate, to provide market liquidity, but it seems that the transmission mechanism of this strategy is not very direct. The famous economist Milton Friedman (Milton Friedman) that "helicopter money", in other words, the central bank directly to the cash sent to every household in 1969.
It is learned that Japan continued to launch QE policy, it is said there is a plan by the government to 52 million households in Japan sent a debit card, a debit card for each new issue of 200,000 yen ($ 1,700).The money must be spent, in one year, otherwise the balance will be cleared. The Japanese government would like to use 10 trillion yen to stimulate the economy. Of course, the market has not learned from this program if it is implemented, but it is certainly worth thinking.
Downside risks still open to buy corporate bonds in June
Currently, downside risks to the euro area did not diminish. Specifically, a leading indicator of differentiation, investment and manufacturing confidence improved, consumer confidence remains sluggish; economic growth is still in the doldrums, capacity utilization, industrial production, construction expenditure fell back.
Faced with sluggish inflation, Draghi also said that the next few months the fear of falling into negative territory again. However, credit expansion has improved the euro area, where the outstanding performance of the German leader.