After Wednesday's heavy volume after the crash on Thursday in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index shrinkage consolidation trend becomes less accident. In more than an initial fright, the various thin Si A-share follow-up trend may be, but little people happy, uncertainties few opportunities, the prevailing market short-term operation, the so-called supply-side "reform cow" exactly when to come?
From the market trend of the day Thursday, the index opened lower after the shock Tandi rebound, but the market sell-off in the afternoon began to increase significantly, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, coal and other resource stocks rallied late recovery disk did not change diving stock index trend, the Shanghai Composite index closed 2952.89 points last only reported, down 19.69 points, or 0.66%, turnover of 206.5 billion yuan; Shenzhen Component index closed at 10,058.80 points, down 105.94 points, or 1.04%, turnover of 335.6 billion yuan; GEM index closed at 2110.16 points, down 35.08 points, or 1.64%, turnover of 84.2 billion yuan. Two cities a day Total net outflow of 4.8 billion yuan of funds.
On the current market trends, from Wednesday's heavy volume Zhang Yin, to Thursday overcast doji, in my experience, such a combination of K-line is often just down relay on Friday re-emergence of a market of more than 3 Yinxian% probability of not low, one of the fundamental reason is that the market sell-off is not fully digest is completed, this time from late Thursday when heavy volume of stock index diving can be seen.
There is no doubt, once again fell sharply Friday the stock market crash on the "4.0" version will cry louder, then what will appear crash "4.0" mean?
Just my opinion, A-share short-term rebound in the end when the trend began to enter the bottom again no doubt, but as long as a stock market crash came down to say, there are too frightened of the suspects, hundreds of thousand shares compared to the previous limit of three times the stock market crash situation the extent of the drop in the stock market this week is still a long way away from the crash.
From 2015 to the first three Backgrounds stock market crash, stock market crash in June 2015 is due to lead to excessive deleveraging, August 2015 and January 2016 the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to have a significant increase in the factors at play (supplemented factors fuse mechanism, etc.), this time to be formed if the stock market crash, but also what factors? merely a bond credit debt default risk ascension can cause a stock market crash it? especially in the commodity market is still in the case of continuous rise.
Rational Analysis Since this week callback A shares, from internal factors, mainly the A-share stock funds are still in a game situation, the OTC market is not positive incremental funding, which makes the experience more than a month rebound, many stocks rose more than after 30%, and a lot of retail investors raised funds and other institutions are choosing to be secured, short-term operation to become the market mainstream thinking mode, which is reflected in Wednesday after the stock shot up 3097 points on volume on hard amplification, mainstream institutions for lack of confidence to break through 3100 points, have to lighten up ahead of time to become the root cause.
Wednesday began a sudden stock market indexes plummeted, from a news perspective is actually not a big negative, and even commodity markets are still rising, increasing the bond market credit debt default risk is not the day to know what the reason for the debt City sudden tightening of liquidity, even once spread to the stock market up, the key factor is the market expected the central bank to lower standards, but was the actual operation of the MLF and other replaced by some institutions for liquidity needs or forced to sell the more liquidity good banks and other blue chips, coupled with poor market conditions last Wednesday itself, the last straw that breaks the a shares.
This tight liquidity situation if there is no strong central bank injected liquidity initiatives, the stock market will continue to constitute the pressing short-term, which is why the market is expected Thursday in a sharp rebound does not appear, but there with a long on the female lead doji reason, no nest eggs will survive, Friday a shares or will usher in a Yin line.
However, this does not mean the stock market crash "4.0 has" been coming, as long as the central bank in a timely manner to inject enough liquidity market, the bond market will ease the panic, and this just suffered no real winners of the A shares, will naturally bottoming , a shares rangebound pattern of high probability will be maintained without too much panic.